While, October 2019 was the warmest October month on record according to EU´s Earth monitoring service, it seems like November is pushing for the wettest month, at least for countries in southern Europe.
High Temperatures Replaced by Massive Precipitation
So far, November has
been unusual wet compared to the latest 10-year period and many regions report more
than 150% of normal November precipitation levels (see Figure 1 from Austria
below). Naturally, the massive amount of rain and snow have significantly
altered hydrological balances of many countries. We will take a quick look into
some of the implications of the wet outcome of November below.
Figure 1: Observed precipitation amounts in percentage when compared to a long-term average of at least 10
Hydrological year 2019
started with a deficit in hydrological balance for CWE at around 4 TWh.
However, everything has been turned upside down since then. At the end of
November, we expect the hydrological balance for CWE to show a surplus of more
than 9.0 TWh compared to normal conditions. At this point in time last year the
hydrological balance showed a deficit of around 8 TWh. CWE received during the
latest month about 11 TWh more precipitation energy than normal, corresponding to
about 170% of normal precipitation energy. Looking at November 2019 in a
historical perspective for CWE, IB and IT, it has by far been the wettest month
for the last 10 years (see figure below).
Historical precipitation energy for November during period 2009-2019 for CWE,
IT and IB. Normal for IB and IT is almost similar so a combined normal is used.
observations for southern Alps also indicate snow conditions well above normal according
to the latest snow map from SLF.ch (see Figure 3 below). The southern most parts
of the Alps show more than 170% of normal, which translate to between 1-2 meters
of snow already. What this means in terms of energy can be seen on app.wattsight.com in our HBV representation.
Figure 3: Observed
snow depth in percentage when compared to a long-term average of at least 10
Italy and IB
Italy has had significant problems with flooding and
mud-shed during November, especially in Venice.
However, many other areas in Italy have suffered from massive snow and rainfall
(see articles here dw.com, theguardian.com and neveappennino.it). Our
models indicate that Italy received about 200% of normal precipitation in
November, making it the wettest November in 10 years. See Figure 2 for more
information. Iberia has during the majority of 2019 suffered from dry
conditions with very low production levels as a consequence (Figure 4 below).
But after torrential rainfall in November (refer to accuweather), the
hydrological balance is finally back to normal levels and production levels has
increased towards the normal.
Run-of-river production history for Spain for the last year. More info on app.wattsight.com.